13 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

Thermoplan Arena, Luzern
Full time2 – 4

Final score: FC Luzern 2-4 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Luzern, 29% draw, 31% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Luzern at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Luzern0%Draw1%FC Basel 189399%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Oscar Kabwit Tshikombassist: Rúben Dantas Fernandes
1'
4'
⚽Žan Celarassist: Kazeem Olaigbe
42'
⚽Philip Oteleassist: Xherdan Shaqiri
Bung Hua Freimann
52'
56'
⚽Xherdan Shaqiriassist: Kazeem Olaigbe
57'
Xherdan Shaqiri
58'
Kevin Ruegg
🔁Oscar Kabwit Tshikombout: Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
60'
🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
60'
🔁Tyron Owusuout: Aurelio Oehlers
60'
61'
🔁Philip Oteleout: Aaron Malouda
61'
🔁Kevin Rueggout: Clément Michelin
66'
⚽Xherdan Shaqiriassist: Kazeem Olaigbe
72'
🔁Xherdan Shaqiriout: giacomo koloto
72'
🔁Jonas harderout: Ludwig Thorell
🔁Daniel Mikołajewskiout: Nando Toggenburger
72'
🔁Matteo Di Giustoout: Lars Villiger
83'
⚽Lars Villigerassist: Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
84'
85'
🔁Žan Celarout: Becir Omeragic

Match stats — FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

46%Possession54%
19Shots17
3On target6
6Corners3

Line-ups

FC Luzern 4-4-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 6L. BertoneM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
  • 16O. tshikombF
Substitutes
  • 29Levin WinklerM
  • 5S. KneževićD
  • 18Bongeli Faveurdi BeengaF
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
  • 27L. VilligerF
Coach: J. Portmann
FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 11K. OlaigbeM
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 7P. OteleM
  • 9Ž. CelarF
Substitutes
  • 49Renato Widmer D’AutiliaG
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 41J. DoucoureM
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 17A. MaloudaF
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 4B. OmeragićD
  • 3N. VouillozD
Coach: Luigi Nocentini

Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

FC Luzern

Super League

  • D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026

FC Basel 1893

Super League

  • L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC Luzern113351824-612
7FC Basel 1893114251720-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

  • 22 February 2026FC Luzern 4–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 17 December 2025FC Luzern 1–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 28 September 2025FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 24 May 2025FC Basel 1893 4–0 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 9 March 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar61
  • A. Sow34
  • X. Shaqiri31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Basel 1893 won 4–2 at FC Luzern. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Luzern at 40% and given a win for FC Basel 1893 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb 1' for FC Luzern, Žan Celar 4' for FC Basel 1893, Philip Otele 42' for FC Basel 1893, Xherdan Shaqiri 56' for FC Basel 1893, Xherdan Shaqiri 66' for FC Basel 1893, Lars Villiger 84' for FC Luzern.

How the call on FC Luzern v FC Basel 1893 has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is FC Luzern's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Luzern win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. FC Basel 1893 win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.