FC Luzern
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Luzern 2-4 FC Basel 1893.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Luzern, 28% draw, 32% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 1.67, FC Basel 1893 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893
Line-ups
- 30K. LeticaG
- 22R. FernandesD
- 13B. FreimannD
- 46B. FreimannD
- 14A. CigaņiksD
- 24T. OwusuM
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 6L. BertoneM
- 11M. Di GiustoM
- 19D. MikołajewskiF
- 16O. tshikombF
- 29Levin WinklerM
- 5S. KneževićD
- 18Bongeli Faveurdi BeengaF
- 21L. LüthiD
- 7A. OehlersF
- 10Lucas FerreiraM
- 1S. SimoniG
- 15N. ToggenburgerF
- 27L. VilligerF
- 13M. SalviG
- 6K. TsunemotoD
- 24F. DaniliucD
- 55A. VictoryD
- 27K. RüeggD
- 44J. HarderM
- 5MetinhoM
- 11K. OlaigbeM
- 10X. ShaqiriM
- 7P. OteleM
- 9Ž. CelarF
- 49Renato Widmer DâAutiliaG
- 29M. CisséD
- 41J. DoucoureM
- 37G. KolotoF
- 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
- 17A. MaloudaF
- 22C. MichelinD
- 4B. OmeragićD
- 3N. VouillozD
Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893
FC Luzern
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
- W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026
FC Basel 1893
- L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys29 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Zurich22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Luzern | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | FC Basel 1893 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893
- 13 September 2026FC Luzern 2–4 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 22 February 2026FC Luzern 4–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 17 December 2025FC Luzern 1–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 28 September 2025FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 24 May 2025FC Basel 1893 4–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 9 March 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893
FC Luzern
- M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
- A. Cigaņiks3 goals
FC Basel 1893
- Ž. Celar5 goals1 assists
- A. Sow3 goals4 assists
- X. Shaqiri3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for FC Luzern and 1.36 for FC Basel 1893; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb 1' (FC Luzern), Žan Celar 4' (FC Basel 1893), Philip Otele 42' (FC Basel 1893), Xherdan Shaqiri 56' (FC Basel 1893), Xherdan Shaqiri 66' (FC Basel 1893), Lars Villiger 84' (FC Luzern).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Luzern the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Luzern against 1.36 for FC Basel 1893. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.45 for FC Basel 1893.