Celtic
vs
Aberdeen
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 85% Celtic, 9% draw, 6% Aberdeen — fair odds of 1.18, 11.11 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Celtic 3.72, Aberdeen 1.00.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Celtic
- W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Aberdeen
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Aberdeen
- 4 March 2026Aberdeen 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 21 December 2025Celtic 3–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 10 August 2025Aberdeen 0–2 CelticPremiership
- 24 May 2025Aberdeen 1–1 CelticFA Cup
- 14 May 2025Aberdeen 1–5 CelticPremiership
- 25 February 2025Celtic 5–1 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers
Celtic
- K. Høgh3 goals
- B. Nygren2 goals1 assists
- L. McCowan1 goals
Aberdeen
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.22 for Aberdeen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Celtic W-W; Aberdeen W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.72 goals for Celtic and 1.00 for Aberdeen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.95 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aberdeen rate 0.58 and 2.07.
That points to 85% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 4-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 85%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.72 expected goals for Celtic against 1 for Aberdeen. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.07 for Aberdeen.