Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Hradec Králové
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 26% Zbrojovka Brno, 26% draw, 48% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.13, Hradec Králové 1.61.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-1Slovan Liberec7 August 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen1 August 2026
- W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026
Hradec Králové
- W2-1Baník Ostrava9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Zbrojovka Brno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové
- 12 November 2025Zbrojovka Brno 0–3 Hradec KrálovéCup
- 8 April 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 15 October 2022Hradec Králové 2–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 18 June 2020Hradec Králové 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoFNL
- 28 September 2019Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 Hradec KrálovéFNL
- 7 May 2019Zbrojovka Brno 2–0 Hradec KrálovéFNL
The two sides
Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.95 for Hradec Králové. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zbrojovka Brno W-D-L; Hradec Králové W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.61 for Hradec Králové. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.72 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hradec Králové rate 1.00 and 0.83.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.61 for Hradec Králové. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.83 for Hradec Králové.