1 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Super League prediction & result

St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% FC Basel 1893, 19% draw, 14% Lausanne — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Basel 1893 at 67% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Basel 18937%Draw90%Lausanne3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁K. Olaigbeout: A. Sow
46'
🔁L. Thorellout: L. Leroy
46'
56'
M. Poaty
58'
O. Custodio
66'
🔁I. Bah Mendesout: A. Ajdini
66'
🔁O. Custodioout: S. Kone
🔁P. Oteleout: A. Malouda
67'
🔁X. Shaqiriout: A. Ajeti
76'
76'
🔁N. Butler-Oyedejiout: F. Mollet
86'
🔁O. Jannehout: I. Despotovic
86'
🔁B. Lekoueiryout: T. Bergvall
90+1'
⚽F. Mollet
90+1'
F. Mollet
🔁N. Vouillozout: M. Cisse
90+2'
A. Victory
90+3'
90+3'
K. Sow
90+6'
T. Bergvall
Metinho
90+7'

Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne

53%Possession47%
13Shots4
3On target1
7Corners4
1.14xG0.46

Goals against chances

FC Basel 18930 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Lausanne1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jonas OmlinG
  • 6Keigo TsunemotoD
  • 24Flavius DaniliucD
  • 55Akpe VictoryD
  • 3Nicolas VouillozD
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 8Ludwig ThorellM
  • 11Kazeem OlaigbeM
  • 10Xherdan ShaqiriM
  • 7Philip OteleM
  • 9Žan CelarF
Substitutes
  • 22Leo LeroyM
  • 18Asane SowF
  • 17Aaron MaloudaF
  • 13Mirko SalviG
  • 4Bećir OmeragićD
  • 27Kevin RüeggD
  • 29Moussa CisséD
  • 44Jonas HarderM
  • 23Albian AjetiF
Coach: Stephan Lichtsteiner
Lausanne 4-2-3-1
  • 90Melvin MastilG
  • 2Brandon SoppyD
  • 14Kevin MouangaD
  • 71Abdou Karim SowD
  • 18Morgan PoatyD
  • 10Olivier CustodioM
  • 8Jamie RocheM
  • 51Ibrahim Bah MendesM
  • 27Beyatt LekoueiryM
  • 11Nathan Butler-OyedejiM
  • 78Omar JannehF
Substitutes
  • 80Sekou KoneM
  • 7Alban AjdiniF
  • 1Thomas CastellaG
  • 3Tyler FredricsonD
  • 5Dircssi NgonzoD
  • 6Theo BergvallD
  • 91Florent MolletM
  • 49Ilija DespotovicF
  • 17Seydou TraoreF
Coach: Luka Elsner

Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne

FC Basel 1893

  • W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026

Lausanne

  • D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC Basel 189384131614+213
12Lausanne8134711-46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne

  • 1 August 2026FC Basel 1893 0–1 LausanneSuper League
  • 1 March 2026Lausanne 1–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 14 December 2025FC Basel 1893 0–0 LausanneSuper League
  • 26 October 2025Lausanne 5–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 14 May 2025Lausanne 2–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 27 April 2025FC Basel 1893 3–2 LausanneSchweizer Cup

Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne

FC Basel 1893

  • Ž. Celar5 goals1 assists
  • A. Sow3 goals4 assists
  • X. Shaqiri3 goals1 assists

Lausanne

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.