Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Chaves
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Chaves
The model makes it 50% Lusitânia Lourosa, 25% draw, 25% Chaves — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lusitânia Lourosa 2.25, Chaves 1.23.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lusitânia Lourosa are top on 16 points from 6 games; Chaves are 16th on 4 points from 5 games — Segunda Liga.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Sporting CP B.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Feirense.
- Last 3 meetings: Chaves 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Chaves 2–2 Lusitânia Lourosa.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusitânia Lourosa at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
Lusitânia Lourosa
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
- D2-2Torreense22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Amarante16 August 2026
Chaves
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting CP B15 August 2026
- L1-4Academica8 August 2026
What these results say
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
- 24 January 2026Chaves 2–2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 16 August 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 2–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 20 October 2024Chaves 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaTaça de Portugal
The two sides
Lusitânia Lourosa carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.33 for Chaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.23 for Chaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lusitânia Lourosa rate 0.74 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chaves rate 0.65 and 1.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 17.4% chance of the title and Chaves 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa against 1.23 for Chaves. Lusitânia Lourosa's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.87 for Chaves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lusitânia Lourosa at home · Chaves away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Lusitânia Lourosa 6, Chaves 5.
Lusitânia Lourosa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chaves have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lusitânia Lourosa
- at Felgueiras 193225 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs Farense1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
- at Feirense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at Penafiel15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Vizela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
Chaves
- vs Vizela23 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Benfica B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Penafiel7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- at Leixoes15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.