Regular Season - 15 · 29 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction

Stade de Tourbillon, Sion

Our model says: FC Sion 2–1 BSC Young Boys

The model makes it 46% FC Sion, 24% draw, 30% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: FC Sion 2.12, BSC Young Boys 1.63.

Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Sion's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and BSC Young Boys's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.

Key facts

FC Sion are 3rd on 26 points from 13 games; BSC Young Boys are 2nd on 28 points from 13 games — Super League.
FC Sion are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to FC Vaduz.
BSC Young Boys have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Luzern.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC Sion.

More Swiss Super League predictions

All Swiss Super League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys

71%

Both teams to score

72%

Over 2.5 goals

28%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Sion win Draw BSC Young Boys win

2–19%
1–19%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
2–05%
3–25%

Scores read FC Sion first; the other scorelines share the remaining 52%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Sion at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys

FC Sion

Super League

W4-0away to FC Vaduz7 November 2026
D1-1away to FC Luzern31 October 2026
W1-0Lausanne25 October 2026
L0-3away to Servette FC10 October 2026
D1-1FC Zurich19 September 2026

BSC Young Boys

Super League

W3-2away to FC Luzern7 November 2026
L3-5FC Zurich1 November 2026
W2-0FC St. Gallen24 October 2026
W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026

What these results say

FC Sion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
BSC Young Boys won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	29	18	+11	26
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	41	25	+16	28

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys

26 July 2026BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC SionSuper League
17 May 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC SionSuper League
22 February 2026FC Sion 3–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
7 December 2025FC Sion 2–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
10 August 2025BSC Young Boys 0–0 FC SionSuper League
8 February 2025BSC Young Boys 5–1 FC SionSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Sion and BSC Young Boys

FC Sion

GoalsAssists

Winsley Boteli Mokango64
R. Nivokazi50

BSC Young Boys

GoalsAssists

S. Essende153
C. Fassnacht61
A. Sanches44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour BSC Young Boys (second, with FC Sion third), while our numbers lean to FC Sion. FC Sion rate 0.74 in attack and 1.04 in defence, BSC Young Boys 1.03 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence), so FC Sion have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Sion a 5.1% chance of the title and BSC Young Boys 9.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Sion BSC Young Boys

0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.03

1.04 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53

2.12 Model expected goals (this match) 1.63

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Sion the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for FC Sion against 1.63 for BSC Young Boys. FC Sion's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.53 for BSC Young Boys.

FC Sion carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.68 for BSC Young Boys. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 46% for FC Sion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Sion to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Sion's ratings take away 1 point and BSC Young Boys's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.

Two average sides, neutral ground38%
Home advantage43%+5
Both sides at this match's level44%+1
FC Sion's ratings43%−1
BSC Young Boys's ratings46%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FC SionModelBSC Young Boys

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

89%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FC SionBSC Young Boys

13Matches13

8W 2D 3LRecord8W 4D 1L

29 2.2 per gameGoals scored41 3.2 per game

18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded25 1.9 per game

4 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13

1 of 13Failed to score0 of 13

2 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2

20 1.5 per gameYellow cards28 2.2 per game

2Red cards2

4-2-3-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

FC Sion at home · BSC Young Boys away

6Played6

4W 1D 1LRecord4W 2D 0L

12–7Goals for – against19–8

2 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FC SionBSC Young Boys

FC Sion are 3rd after 13 Super League matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); BSC Young Boys are 2nd after 13 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League matches this season: FC Sion 13, BSC Young Boys 13.

FC Sion scored 426549

BSC Young Boys conceded 435426

FC Sion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); BSC Young Boys have let in 6 there.

BSC Young Boys scored 578884

FC Sion conceded 524141

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Sion

at Lausanne6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 52%
vs FC Basel 189313 Dec · Super Leaguewin 58%
at FC Thun20 Dec · Super Leaguewin 47%
vs Grasshoppers17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 66%

BSC Young Boys

at FC Vaduz5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 48%
vs Lausanne12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 69%
at Servette FC20 Dec · Super Leaguewin 39%
vs FC Lugano16 Jan · Super Leaguewin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.