FC Luzern
vs
FC Lugano
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Luzern 1–2 FC Lugano
The model makes it 26% FC Luzern, 24% draw, 50% FC Lugano — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 1.32, FC Lugano 2.05.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Luzern's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and FC Lugano's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- FC Luzern are 9th on 13 points from 13 games; FC Lugano are top on 34 points from 13 games — Super League.
- FC Luzern are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to BSC Young Boys.
- FC Lugano have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to FC St. Gallen.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Lugano 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Luzern vs FC Lugano
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Lugano
FC Luzern
Super League
- L2-3BSC Young Boys7 November 2026
- D1-1FC Sion31 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich24 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
FC Lugano
Super League
- L0-5away to FC St. Gallen8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Basel 18931 November 2026
- W3-2away to FC Thun25 October 2026
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Luzern failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Luzern | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 13 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Lugano
- 10 October 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 7 March 2026FC Lugano 1–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 17 January 2026FC Luzern 2–5 FC LuganoSuper League
- 30 October 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 4 May 2025FC Luzern 0–2 FC LuganoSuper League
- 15 February 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Lugano
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
- M. Di Giusto43
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- Daniel Dos Santos51
- D. Moncada51
- Y. Cimignani40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Luzern a 0% chance of the title and FC Lugano 85%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Luzern against 2.05 for FC Lugano. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.01 for FC Lugano.
How the model reaches 50% for FC Lugano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Lugano to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, FC Luzern's ratings add 9 points and FC Lugano's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- FC Luzern's ratings41%+9
- FC Lugano's ratings50%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Luzern at home · FC Lugano away
League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC LuzernFC Lugano
FC Luzern are 9th after 13 Super League matches (between 4th and 12th so far); FC Lugano are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Luzern 13, FC Lugano 13.
FC Luzern score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 3 there.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Luzern have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Luzern
- at FC Thun5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 33%
- vs Servette FC13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 37%
- at Grasshoppers19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 43%
- vs FC St. Gallen17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 36%
FC Lugano
- at FC Zurich5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 52%
- at FC Copenhagen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 25%
- vs FC Thun13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.