MTK Budapest
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 65% MTK Budapest, 22% draw, 13% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.98, Kisvarda FC 0.78.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
MTK Budapest
- D1-1away to Ujpest15 August 2026
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
- D3-3away to Budapest Honved1 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Kisvarda FC
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
- L2-4Ujpest8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Puskas Academy31 July 2026
- D1-1Budapest Honved25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC
- 18 April 2026MTK Budapest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 24 January 2026Kisvarda FC 2–3 MTK BudapestNB I
- 28 September 2025MTK Budapest 4–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 2 April 2024Kisvarda FC 3–2 MTK BudapestMagyar Kupa
- 17 March 2024MTK Budapest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 25 November 2023Kisvarda FC 3–1 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek2 goals1 assists
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
MTK Budapest carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.09 for Kisvarda FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): MTK Budapest W-D-L-D; Kisvarda FC D-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for MTK Budapest and 0.78 for Kisvarda FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MTK Budapest rate 0.56 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kisvarda FC rate 0.40 and 1.87.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 0.78 for Kisvarda FC. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.87 for Kisvarda FC.