MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC NB I prediction & result
Final score: MTK Budapest 1-2 Kisvarda FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% MTK Budapest, 29% draw, 28% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 43% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC
Line-ups
- 1P. DemjenG
- 2B. VarjuD
- 4I. BeriashviliD
- 26V. ArmalasD
- 27P. KovacsD
- 6M. KataM
- 80A. ZeljkovicM
- 11G. JurekM
- 10I. BognarM
- 20Z. KerezsiM
- 37A. NyersF
- 24T. FadgyasG
- 12M. Macsik
- 17K. HinoraM
- 5D. HorvathD
- 30S. BakoF
- 8A. G. ZuborM
- 29S. SzuhodovszkiM
- 7D. ZsoriF
- 13M. TimoteusD
- 23I. PopovychG
- 55K. NagyD
- 42T. LippaiD
- 4M. ChlumeckyD
- 10D. SolteszD
- 11M. MatanovicM
- 24C. HercM
- 80H. MbockM
- 77A. EsikM
- 99T. YordanovF
- 14B. MelnykF
- 1M. KovacsG
- 18K. KormendiM
- 70L. SzorM
- 22A. YougaM
- 6M. OsztrovkaM
- 27J. MesanovicF
- 86S. NovothnyF
- 29B. BiroF
- 21H. SzikszaiM
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC
MTK Budapest
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ujpest15 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC
- 18 April 2026MTK Budapest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 24 January 2026Kisvarda FC 2–3 MTK BudapestNB I
- 28 September 2025MTK Budapest 4–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 2 April 2024Kisvarda FC 3–2 MTK BudapestMagyar Kupa
- 17 March 2024MTK Budapest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 25 November 2023Kisvarda FC 3–1 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Kisvarda FC
MTK Budapest
- G. Jurek5 goals1 assist
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals3 assists
- I. Bognár2 goals2 assists
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
- M. Matanović2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.