FC Porto vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 2-1 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% FC Porto, 23% draw, 16% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 61% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Moreirense
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 22A. VarelaM
- 24AndorinhaG
- 57Duarte CunhaF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 18N. PérezD
- 13André FerreiraG
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 76Dinis PintoM
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 11LandersonM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaF
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 20João VelosoF
- 99MaranhãoF
- 89Afonso VieiraF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 10Kiko BondosoF
- 1AranhaG
Form going into FC Porto vs Moreirense
FC Porto
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
Moreirense
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 18 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Moreirense
- 4 September 2026FC Porto 2–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 15 March 2026FC Porto 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 27 October 2025Moreirense 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 May 2025FC Porto 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 21 December 2024Moreirense 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 24 November 2024Moreirense 2–1 FC PortoTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Moreirense
FC Porto
- Gabri Veiga3 goals3 assists
- Borja Sainz3 goals
- André Silva3 goals
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.