FC Porto vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 2-1 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% FC Porto, 23% draw, 16% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Moreirense
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 22A. VarelaM
- 24AndorinhaG
- 57Duarte CunhaF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 18N. PérezD
- 13André FerreiraG
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 76Dinis PintoM
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 11LandersonM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaF
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 20João VelosoF
- 99MaranhãoF
- 89Afonso VieiraF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 10Kiko BondosoF
- 1AranhaG
Form going into FC Porto vs Moreirense
FC Porto
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
- W2-0Alverca9 August 2026
Moreirense
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
- D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto won every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Moreirense
- 15 March 2026FC Porto 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 27 October 2025Moreirense 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 May 2025FC Porto 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 21 December 2024Moreirense 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 24 November 2024Moreirense 2–1 FC PortoTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Moreirense
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Moreirense 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Dinis Pinto 20' for Moreirense, Jan Bednarek 37' for FC Porto, William Gomes 58' for FC Porto. Sent off: Guilherme Liberato (Moreirense) 90'.