SC Braga vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: SC Braga 1-0 Vitória SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% SC Braga, 29% draw, 32% Vitória SC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Braga vs Vitória SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 14Gustaf LagerbielkeD
- 6Vítor CarvalhoD
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 2Victor GómezM
- 34Demir Ege TıknazM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 7Diogo TravassosM
- 20Mario DorgelesF
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 10Pau VíctorF
- 17Jovan MiloševićF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 44Adrian BajramiD
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 78Joao CarvalhoG
- 12Tiago SáG
- 53Jonatás NoroD
- 37Adrian Leon BarišićD
- 48Oliwier ZychG
- 23Tony StrataD
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 44Lohann DoucetM
- 11Gustavo SilvaM
- 20SamuM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 24Alioune NdoyeF
- 16Beni MukendiM
- 7Oumar CamaraF
- 19Victor AnderssonM
- 29Patrick OuotroF
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM
- 22Juan CastilloG
- 82Francisco DiasD
- 15Yeimar MosqueraD
- 5Franck Ahmed SidibéD
Form going into SC Braga vs Vitória SC
SC Braga
- D0-0away to Austria Vienna27 August 2026
- W2-0Austria Vienna20 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Minsk6 August 2026
Vitória SC
- W1-0Nacional23 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Braga had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Vitória SC
- 31 August 2026SC Braga 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 21 February 2026SC Braga 3–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 10 January 2026Vitória SC 2–1 SC BragaTaça da Liga
- 20 September 2025Vitória SC 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 February 2025Vitória SC 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2024SC Braga 2–1 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Vitória SC
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assist
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.