SC Braga
vs
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 32% SC Braga, 29% draw, 39% Vitória SC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.15, Vitória SC 1.27.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SC Braga
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Vitória SC
- L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026
- L0-1Arouca8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Vitória SC
- 21 February 2026SC Braga 3–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 10 January 2026Vitória SC 2–1 SC BragaTaça da Liga
- 20 September 2025Vitória SC 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 February 2025Vitória SC 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2024SC Braga 2–1 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
- 15 September 2024SC Braga 0–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
The two sides
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.85 for Vitória SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SC Braga D; Vitória SC L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for SC Braga and 1.27 for Vitória SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 0.60 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitória SC rate 1.00 and 1.01.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Braga, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitória SC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SC Braga against 1.27 for Vitória SC. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 0.6/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.01 for Vitória SC.