FC Midtjylland
vs
Bohemians
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 63% FC Midtjylland, 22% draw, 15% Bohemians — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.01, Bohemians 0.89.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1AC Horsens2 August 2026
- W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
Bohemians
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FC Midtjylland
- V. Byskov1 goals2 assists
- Julius Emefile1 goals
- F. Etim1 goals
Bohemians
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.3 for Bohemians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Midtjylland W-W; Bohemians W-D-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for FC Midtjylland and 0.89 for Bohemians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 0.69 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians rate 0.51 and 1.54.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 0.89 for Bohemians. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.54 for Bohemians.