Radnik Surdulica
vs
FK Partizan
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK Partizan
The model makes it 25% Radnik Surdulica, 23% draw, 52% FK Partizan — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Radnik Surdulica 1.61, FK Partizan 2.82.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Radnik Surdulica wins, grey are draws, red are FK Partizan wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Partizan at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan
Radnik Surdulica
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026
- W1-0Novi Pazar23 August 2026
FK Partizan
- L2-3Vojvodina13 September 2026
- L1-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda6 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Mladost Lucani23 August 2026
- L0-1Radnicki 192316 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Radnik Surdulica | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | FK Partizan | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs FK Partizan
- 23 May 2026FK Partizan 5–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 7 February 2026Radnik Surdulica 2–3 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 30 August 2025FK Partizan 2–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 12 March 2025Radnik Surdulica 0–3 FK PartizanCup
- 24 February 2024Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 17 September 2023FK Partizan 3–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and FK Partizan
Radnik Surdulica
- V. Bogdanović3 goals
- M. Novaković2 goals1 assists
FK Partizan
- E. Kojzek2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Radnik Surdulica carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.47 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Radnik Surdulica and 2.82 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Surdulica rate 0.44 in attack and 2.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.93 and 2.25.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Radnik Surdulica, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radnik Surdulica a 0.1% chance of the title and FK Partizan 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Partizan the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica against 2.82 for FK Partizan. Radnik Surdulica's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/2.25 for FK Partizan.