FC Luzern vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Luzern 1-3 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% FC Luzern, 16% draw, 11% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 73% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Luzern vs FC Thun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Simon SimoniG
- 20Pius DornD
- 5Stefan KneževićD
- 21Loïc LüthiD
- 22Rúben DantasD
- 10Lucas SilvaM
- 24Tyron OwusuM
- 6Leonardo BertoneM
- 11Matteo Di GiustoM
- 16Oscar KabwitF
- 27Lars VilligerF
- 7Aurelio OehlersF
- 14Andrejs CigaņiksD
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 17Sandro WyssF
- 71Sascha MeyerF
- 63Raphael RadtkeG
- 13Bung Hua FreimannD
- 3Jesper LofgrenD
- 28Ronaldo Dantas FernandesM
- 1Niklas SteffenG
- 37Lucien DählerD
- 5Nicolas BürgyD
- 19Jan BamertD
- 17Ashvin BalarubanD
- 13Nassim ZoukitM
- 8Fabio SaizM
- 30Nico MaierM
- 21Dorian DerbaciM
- 33Marc GutbubF
- 11Layton StewartF
- 27Michael HeuleD
- 16Justin RothM
- 78Valmir MatoshiM
- 70Nils ReichmuthM
- 96Brighton LabeauF
- 25Tim SpycherG
- 47Fabio FehrD
- 54Louis PassavantD
- 80Simon LengenF
Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Thun
FC Luzern
No earlier matches on record this season.
FC Thun
- D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Luzern | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | FC Thun | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Thun
- 28 February 2026FC Thun 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 6 December 2025FC Thun 4–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 9 August 2025FC Luzern 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 11 October 2024FC Thun 2–3 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
- 16 September 2023FC Thun 1–3 FC LuzernSchweizer Cup
- 31 January 2023FC Thun 2–2 FC LuzernSchweizer Cup
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Thun
FC Luzern
- M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
- A. Cigaņiks3 goals
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.