FC Luzern vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Luzern 1-3 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% FC Luzern, 16% draw, 11% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 73% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Luzern vs FC Thun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Simon SimoniG
- 20Pius DornD
- 5Stefan KneževićD
- 21Loïc LüthiD
- 22Rúben DantasD
- 10Lucas SilvaM
- 24Tyron OwusuM
- 6Leonardo BertoneM
- 11Matteo Di GiustoM
- 16Oscar KabwitF
- 27Lars VilligerF
- 7Aurelio OehlersF
- 14Andrejs CigaņiksD
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 17Sandro WyssF
- 71Sascha MeyerF
- 63Raphael RadtkeG
- 13Bung Hua FreimannD
- 3Jesper LofgrenD
- 28Ronaldo Dantas FernandesM
- 1Niklas SteffenG
- 37Lucien DählerD
- 5Nicolas BürgyD
- 19Jan BamertD
- 17Ashvin BalarubanD
- 13Nassim ZoukitM
- 8Fabio SaizM
- 30Nico MaierM
- 21Dorian DerbaciM
- 33Marc GutbubF
- 11Layton StewartF
- 27Michael HeuleD
- 16Justin RothM
- 78Valmir MatoshiM
- 70Nils ReichmuthM
- 96Brighton LabeauF
- 25Tim SpycherG
- 47Fabio FehrD
- 54Louis PassavantD
- 80Simon LengenF
Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Thun
FC Luzern
No earlier matches on record this season.
FC Thun
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Thun
- 28 February 2026FC Thun 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 6 December 2025FC Thun 4–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 9 August 2025FC Luzern 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 11 October 2024FC Thun 2–3 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
- 16 September 2023FC Thun 1–3 FC LuzernSchweizer Cup
- 31 January 2023FC Thun 2–2 FC LuzernSchweizer Cup
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Thun
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Thun won 3–1 at FC Luzern. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Luzern at 73% and given a win for FC Thun 11%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 9 matches like this one. The goals: S. Knezevic 2' for FC Luzern, N. Maier 8' for FC Thun, M. Gutbub 51' for FC Thun, N. Burgy 84' for FC Thun. On expected goals it finished 2.50–1.63.