25 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result

Brno
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 3-1 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Zbrojovka Brno, 31% draw, 25% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Vašulínassist: Tadeáš Vachoušek
34'
50'
⚽John Mercado
⚽Tadeáš Vachoušekassist: Filip Vedral
64'
🔁Lukas Penxaout: Antonin Vanicek
64'
🔁Lukáš Saalout: Jakub Janetzký
64'
66'
🔁Jan Kuchtaout: Matyáš Vojta
67'
🔁Josimar Alcócerout: Matěj Ryneš
🔁Tadeáš Vachoušekout: Eric Hunal
72'
72'
🔁Hugo Sochurekout: Dominik Hollý
🔁Patrik Čavošout: Jaromír Zmrhal
80'
🔁Daniel Vašulínout: Oliver Velich
80'
⚽Lucky Ezehassist: Amadou Dante
81'
83'
🔁Pavel Kadeřábekout: Martin Suchomel
83'
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Garang Kuol

Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha

36%Possession64%
13Shots14
6On target6
7Corners8
2.21xG1.35

Goals against chances

Zbrojovka Brno3 from 2.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sparta Praha1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno 4-4-2
  • 1Adam HrdinaG
  • 39Jakub KlímaD
  • 26Filip VedralD
  • 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
  • 44Amadou DanteD
  • 6Lukas PenxaM
  • 20Lukáš SaalM
  • 8Patrik ČavošM
  • 14Tadeáš VachoušekM
  • 15Daniel VašulínF
  • 77Lucky EzehF
Substitutes
  • 68Jakub JanetzkýM
  • 10Antonin VanicekM
  • 4Eric HunalD
  • 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
  • 9Oliver VelichF
  • 24Dominik SváčekG
  • 11Martin RymarenkoF
  • 23Petr ŠevčíkM
  • 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
Coach: Martin Svedik
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44Jakub SurovčíkG
  • 3Pavel KadeřábekD
  • 19Adam ŠevinskýD
  • 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
  • 17John MercadoD
  • 18Andy IrvingM
  • 38Hugo SochurekM
  • 7Josimar AlcócerM
  • 10Adam KarabecM
  • 22Lukáš HaraslínM
  • 9Jan KuchtaF
Substitutes
  • 29Matyáš VojtaF
  • 11Matěj RynešD
  • 24Dominik HollýM
  • 2Martin SuchomelD
  • 36Garang KuolM
  • 66Sebastian ZajacG
  • 47Krisztián HegyiG
  • 25Asger SørensenD
  • 32Sebastian PechD
Coach: Brian Priske

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Zbrojovka Brno85121210+216
9Sparta Praha84041512+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha

  • 25 July 2026Zbrojovka Brno 0–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 30 October 2024Sparta Praha 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCup
  • 2 April 2023Sparta Praha 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 8 October 2022Zbrojovka Brno 0–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 29 May 2021Sparta Praha 6–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 22 August 2020Zbrojovka Brno 1–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha

Zbrojovka Brno

  • D. Vašulín4 goals
  • A. Vaníček3 goals1 assists

Sparta Praha

  • J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
  • J. Mercado3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.