Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 3-1 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Zbrojovka Brno, 31% draw, 25% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 26Filip VedralD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 44Amadou DanteD
- 6Lukas PenxaM
- 20Lukáš SaalM
- 8Patrik ČavošM
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekM
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 68Jakub JanetzkýM
- 10Antonin VanicekM
- 4Eric HunalD
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 9Oliver VelichF
- 24Dominik SváčekG
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 23Petr ŠevčíkM
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 17John MercadoD
- 18Andy IrvingM
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 7Josimar AlcócerM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 22Lukáš HaraslínM
- 9Jan KuchtaF
- 29Matyáš VojtaF
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 2Martin SuchomelD
- 36Garang KuolM
- 66Sebastian ZajacG
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 25Asger SørensenD
- 32Sebastian PechD
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha
- 30 October 2024Sparta Praha 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCup
- 2 April 2023Sparta Praha 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 8 October 2022Zbrojovka Brno 0–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 29 May 2021Sparta Praha 6–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 22 August 2020Zbrojovka Brno 1–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
- A. Vaníček31
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes52
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zbrojovka Brno beat Sparta Praha 3–1. The model had made a win for Zbrojovka Brno its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Daniel Vašulín 34' for Zbrojovka Brno, John Mercado 50' for Sparta Praha, Tadeáš Vachoušek 64' for Zbrojovka Brno, Lucky Ezeh 81' for Zbrojovka Brno. On expected goals it finished 2.21–1.35.