Plzen vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Plzen, 18% draw, 6% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 1.32, 5.56 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 76% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Slovan Liberec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Florian WiegeleG
- 99Amar MemićD
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 18Tomáš LadraM
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 7Salim Fago LawalF
- 36Stefan PirgićF
- 66Sebastian BoháčM
- 11Matěj VydraF
- 25Christophe KabongoF
- 23Baboucarr FaalF
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 40Tomáš KoubekG
- 18Josef KoželuhD
- 14Augustin DrakpeD
- 29Lukáš HůlkaD
- 27Aziz KayondoD
- 12Vojtěch StránskýM
- 8Lukáš MasopustM
- 24Patrik DulayM
- 19Vasil KušejM
- 5Petr HodoušM
- 9Lukáš MašekF
- 3Jan MikulaD
- 7Soliu AfolabiM
- 60Fallou FayeM
- 99Raimonds KrollisF
- 21Lukáš LetenayF
- 47Jindrich MusilG
- 31Dominik KudelcikG
- 15Milan LexaM
- 16Alexandr BužekM
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Plzen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Slovan Liberec
- 9 May 2026Plzen 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 8 February 2026Plzen 3–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 31 August 2025Slovan Liberec 1–1 PlzenCzech Liga
- 8 February 2025Plzen 3–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 1 September 2024Slovan Liberec 1–1 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Slovan Liberec
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić43
Slovan Liberec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slovan Liberec won 3–1 at Plzen. The model had leaned towards a win for Plzen at 76% and given a win for Slovan Liberec 6%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 17 matches like this one. The goals: T. Ladra (own goal) 27' for Slovan Liberec, D. Krcik (penalty) 51' for Plzen, A. Soliu 76' for Slovan Liberec, P. Dulay 90+5' for Slovan Liberec. On expected goals it finished 1.07–2.42.