FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 2-1 FC Vaduz.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Lugano, 27% draw, 35% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 18Joel BichselD
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 7Ezgjan AlioskiM
- 14Ahmed KendouciF
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 46Mattia ZanottiD
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 44CarboneD
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 23Gjan AjdinM
- 25Leon SchaffranG
- 14Mischa BeeliD
- 27Niklas LangD
- 5Liridon BerishaD
- 29Malik SawadogoD
- 17Julian StarkM
- 20Luca MackM
- 10Juan CabreraM
- 11Lutfi DalipiM
- 9Marcel MonsbergerF
- 19Dejan ĐokićF
- 39Dejan SorgićF
- 4Nicolas HaslerD
- 22Mischa EberhardM
- 28Miloš CocićM
- 7Dominik SchwizerM
- 1Benjamin BüchelG
- 6Denis SimaniD
- 37Luca CelentanoD
- 23Mats HammerichM
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
FC Lugano
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026
FC Vaduz
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Atlètic Club d'Escaldes23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 31 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
- 17 July 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 15 January 2022FC Lugano 3–0 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 8 May 2021FC Lugano 0–2 FC VaduzSuper League
- 14 March 2021FC Vaduz 0–3 FC LuganoSuper League
- 3 February 2021FC Lugano 1–1 FC VaduzSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Vaduz
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada51
- Daniel Dos Santos41
- H. Delcroix32
FC Vaduz
GoalsAssists
- M. Monsberger61
- L. Dalipi59
- Juan Cabrera40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano beat FC Vaduz 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Papadopoulos 29' for FC Lugano, L. Mai 37' for FC Lugano, L. Dalipi 71' for FC Vaduz. Sent off: L. Schaffran (FC Vaduz) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.03–0.71.