FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 2-1 FC Vaduz.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Lugano, 27% draw, 35% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 18Joel BichselD
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 7Ezgjan AlioskiM
- 14Ahmed KendouciF
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 46Mattia ZanottiD
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 44CarboneD
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 23Gjan AjdinM
- 25Leon SchaffranG
- 14Mischa BeeliD
- 27Niklas LangD
- 5Liridon BerishaD
- 29Malik SawadogoD
- 17Julian StarkM
- 20Luca MackM
- 10Juan CabreraM
- 11Lutfi DalipiM
- 9Marcel MonsbergerF
- 19Dejan ĐokićF
- 39Dejan SorgićF
- 4Nicolas HaslerD
- 22Mischa EberhardM
- 28Miloš CocićM
- 7Dominik SchwizerM
- 1Benjamin BüchelG
- 6Denis SimaniD
- 37Luca CelentanoD
- 23Mats HammerichM
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
FC Lugano
- W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026
FC Vaduz
- W4-0Atlètic Club d'Escaldes23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Vaduz
- 26 July 2026FC Lugano 2–1 FC VaduzSuper League
- 17 July 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 15 January 2022FC Lugano 3–0 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 8 May 2021FC Lugano 0–2 FC VaduzSuper League
- 14 March 2021FC Vaduz 0–3 FC LuganoSuper League
- 3 February 2021FC Lugano 1–1 FC VaduzSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Vaduz
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
FC Vaduz
- Juan Cabrera4 goals
- L. Dalipi3 goals7 assists
- M. Monsberger3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.