Pendikspor
vs
Vanspor FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Pendikspor 1–0 Vanspor FK
The model makes it 47% Pendikspor, 28% draw, 25% Vanspor FK — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.74, Vanspor FK 0.95.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pendikspor are 12th on 10 points from 8 games; Vanspor FK are 19th on 4 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Pendikspor are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Bodrum FK.
- Vanspor FK have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Antalyaspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Vanspor FK 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pendikspor at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
- W1-0Ümraniyespor5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sarıyer1 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor28 August 2026
Vanspor FK
- L0-3away to Antalyaspor20 September 2026
- D1-1Keçiörengücü12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor6 September 2026
- L0-2Batman Petrolspor2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mardin 196929 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Pendikspor had two goals or fewer.
- Pendikspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pendikspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Vanspor FK | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
- 6 March 2026Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 18 October 2025Vanspor FK 1–1 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 18 March 2021Vanspor FK 2–0 Pendikspor2. Lig
- 14 November 2020Pendikspor 3–5 Vanspor FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Pendikspor and Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
- Thuram3 goals1 assist
Vanspor FK
- J. Bardhi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pendikspor carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.18 for Vanspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Pendikspor and 0.95 for Vanspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pendikspor rate 0.55 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vanspor FK rate 0.51 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pendikspor a 0.3% chance of the title and Vanspor FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pendikspor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Pendikspor against 0.95 for Vanspor FK. Pendikspor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.95 for Vanspor FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pendikspor at home · Vanspor FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Pendikspor 8, Vanspor FK 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pendikspor
- at Bursaspor19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 21%
- vs Kayserispor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Fatih Karagümrük31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 24%
- vs İstanbulspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
Vanspor FK
- vs Ümraniyespor18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Boluspor23 Oct · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Sarıyer31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Sivasspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.