Sarıyer
vs
Bodrum FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sarıyer 1–0 Bodrum FK
The model makes it 34% Sarıyer, 33% draw, 33% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 2.94, 3.03 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarıyer 1.02, Bodrum FK 0.96.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sarıyer and Bodrum FK are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sarıyer are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Bodrum FK are 14th on 8 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Sarıyer have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Boluspor.
- Bodrum FK have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Pendikspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarıyer 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Bodrum FK 0–1 Sarıyer.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarıyer at 34% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
Sarıyer
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Keçiörengücü5 September 2026
- W2-0Pendikspor1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor28 August 2026
Bodrum FK
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026
- D0-0Esenler Erokspor3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manisa F.K.30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarıyer scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bodrum FK had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sarıyer | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 | Bodrum FK | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
- 2 May 2026Bodrum FK 0–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 27 December 2025Sarıyer 1–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 5 March 2022Bodrum FK 3–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
- 31 October 2021Sarıyer 1–2 Bodrum FK2. Lig
- 17 March 2019Sarıyer 3–1 Bodrum FK2. Lig
- 27 October 2018Bodrum FK 1–3 Sarıyer2. Lig
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Bodrum FK
Sarıyer
- B. Kör4 goals1 assist
Bodrum FK
- E. Bilsel3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarıyer carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.49 for Bodrum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Sarıyer and 0.96 for Bodrum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarıyer rate 0.52 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodrum FK rate 0.56 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sarıyer a 1% chance of the title and Bodrum FK 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarıyer the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sarıyer against 0.96 for Bodrum FK. Sarıyer's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.2 for Bodrum FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarıyer at home · Bodrum FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sarıyer 8, Bodrum FK 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sarıyer
- at Sivasspor17 Oct · 1. Ligwin 31%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Vanspor FK31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Iğdır FK6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Bodrum FK
- vs Bandırmaspor17 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Antalyaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Ümraniyespor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Boluspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.