Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Cluj 3-4 Rapid.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Universitatea Cluj, 29% draw, 30% Rapid — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Universitatea Cluj at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ştefan Daniel LefterG
- 24D. MikanovićD
- 6I. CristeaD
- 8D. CodreaD
- 27A. ChipciuD
- 94O. BicM
- 7M. DrammehM
- 19I. MacalouM
- 29O. MendyM
- 11M. ȘtefănescuM
- 17J. LukićF
- 2A. ChinteÈD
- 25A. AlievF
- 12A. FridayM
- 77A. GheorghițăF
- 93N. MichaelG
- 21D. MoldovanG
- 10D. NistorM
- 22F. PouloloD
- 33J. StanojevM
- 99B. UngureanuG
- 19R. OneaD
- 18S. SinyanD
- 6L. KramerD
- 66W. L. OuedraogoD
- 8C. GrameniM
- 44C. B. DoumbiaM
- 29A. DobreM
- 80O. MoruțanM
- 7M. KamaraM
- 9F. StojilkovićF
- 27E. AnnanD
- 22V. BubanjaM
- 13D. CiobotariuD
- 90T. JamborF
- 23C. ManeaD
- 5A. PașcanuD
- 10C. PetrilaM
- 55R. PopM
- 21R. SălceanuD
Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
Universitatea Cluj
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj8 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
- W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
- L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
Rapid
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Arges Pitesti18 September 2026
- W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Universitatea Cluj had three goals or more.
- Rapid went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rapid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 26 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
- 9 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 1–0 RapidLiga I
- 5 April 2026Rapid 1–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 31 January 2026Rapid 0–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 12 September 2025Universitatea Cluj 0–0 RapidLiga I
- 24 May 2025Universitatea Cluj 2–2 RapidLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Rapid
Universitatea Cluj
GoalsAssists
- J. Lukić73
- A. Aliev62
Rapid
GoalsAssists
- A. Dobre60
- F. Stojilković41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rapid won 4–3 at Universitatea Cluj. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitatea Cluj at 41% and given a win for Rapid 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Issouf Macalou 2' for Universitatea Cluj, Mohammed·Kamara 13' for Rapid, Filip Stojiljković 24' for Rapid, Filip Stojiljković 50' for Rapid, Mouhamadou Drammeh 54' for Universitatea Cluj, Dorin Codrea 81' for Universitatea Cluj, Razvan Onea 88' for Rapid. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitatea Cluj a 66.2% chance to finish in the top four: 73.8% after a win, 64.1% after a draw, 56.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.8%, 9.4 points lower than before the match.
For Rapid the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 76.8% going in: 85.1% after a win, 78.1% after a draw, 71.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.1%, 8.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universitatea Cluj v Rapid has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Universitatea Cluj's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Universitatea Cluj win41%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Rapid win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.