Regular Season - 11 · 10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid Liga I prediction

Cluj Arena, Cluj-Napoca

Our model says: Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Rapid

The model makes it 38% Universitatea Cluj, 30% draw, 32% Rapid — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Universitatea Cluj 1.31, Rapid 1.13.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
Universitatea Cluj38%2.63
Draw30%3.33
Rapid32%3.13

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Universitatea Cluj win Draw Rapid win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Universitatea Cluj first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 34%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Cluj at 38% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid

Universitatea Cluj

  • W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
  • W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
  • L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti22 August 2026

Rapid

  • W3-1Arges Pitesti18 September 2026
  • W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Universitatea Cluj95041413+115
2Rapid10631146+821

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid

  • 9 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 1–0 RapidLiga I
  • 5 April 2026Rapid 1–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 31 January 2026Rapid 0–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 12 September 2025Universitatea Cluj 0–0 RapidLiga I
  • 24 May 2025Universitatea Cluj 2–2 RapidLiga I
  • 19 April 2025Rapid 0–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I

Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Rapid

Universitatea Cluj

  • A. Aliev6 goals2 assists

Rapid

  • A. Dobre3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Universitatea Cluj carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.59 for Rapid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Universitatea Cluj and 1.13 for Rapid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Universitatea Cluj rate 0.74 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid rate 0.70 and 1.18.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rapid, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Cluj a 1.4% chance of the title and Rapid 15.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Universitatea Cluj the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj against 1.13 for Rapid. Universitatea Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.18 for Rapid.