Fakel vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Fakel 0-1 Zenit.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Fakel, 31% draw, 35% Zenit — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fakel vs Zenit
Line-ups
- 1D. FrolkinG
- 5A. GabaraevD
- 53M. BardachevD
- 44Y. ZhuravlevD
- 55D. TodorovicM
- 97B. MagomedovM
- 52R. NetfullinM
- 10I. AlshinM
- 99N. GiorgobianiF
- 9A. Gnapi DableF
- 11A. SutorminF
- 96I. ObukhovG
- 35V. DorovskikhG
- 20I. YurganovD
- 22H. El MhassaniD
- 8A. BagamaevM
- 17A. KovalevM
- 23V. YakimovM
- 93M. UridiaF
- 19B. PusiF
- 16D. AdamovG
- 31Gustavo MantuanD
- 78I. DiveevD
- 28N. AlipD
- 66R. VegaD
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 5W. BarriosM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 61D. KondakovM
- 14Jhon JhonM
- 9Felipe AugustoF
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 33NinoD
- 15V. KaravaevD
- 82S. VolkovD
- 25K. AndradeD
- 21A. ErokhinM
- 38A. MusaevM
- 7A. SobolevF
Form going into Fakel vs Zenit
Fakel
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
Zenit
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fakel vs Zenit
- 8 March 2025Fakel 0–2 ZenitPremier League
- 22 October 2024Fakel 0–1 ZenitCup
- 21 September 2024Zenit 3–1 FakelPremier League
- 30 July 2024Zenit 3–0 FakelCup
- 6 May 2024Fakel Voronezh 1–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League
- 13 August 2023Zenit Saint Petersburg 2–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
Leading scorers: Fakel and Zenit
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Zenit
- A. Sobolev7 goals2 assists
- M. Glushenkov6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.