Lokomotiv
vs
Dynamo
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 26% Lokomotiv, 21% draw, 53% Dynamo — fair odds of 3.85, 4.76 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.51, Dynamo 2.21.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv
- D1-1away to FC Orenburg14 August 2026
- D0-0Akron8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala1 August 2026
- D1-1Akhmat26 July 2026
Dynamo
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Baltika1 August 2026
- D0-0Krylia Sovetov25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Lokomotiv carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.59 for Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv D-L-D-D; Dynamo D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Lokomotiv and 2.21 for Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv rate 0.53 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo rate 0.88 and 1.51.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 2.21 for Dynamo. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.51 for Dynamo.