Grazer AK
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 46% Grazer AK, 26% draw, 28% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.59, Wolfsberger AC 1.17.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Grazer AK
- W2-1Austria Lustenau8 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lask Linz31 July 2026
Wolfsberger AC
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg9 August 2026
- W3-0Austria Vienna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Wolfsberger AC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC
- 25 April 2026Wolfsberger AC 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 14 March 2026Grazer AK 2–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 8 February 2026Wolfsberger AC 2–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 4 October 2025Grazer AK 1–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Grazer AK 3–4 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 25 August 2024Wolfsberger AC 4–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
Leading scorers
Grazer AK
No league goals recorded yet.
Wolfsberger AC
- G. Vrioni3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.44 for Wolfsberger AC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Grazer AK L-W; Wolfsberger AC W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Grazer AK and 1.17 for Wolfsberger AC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grazer AK rate 0.60 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolfsberger AC rate 0.61 and 1.40.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wolfsberger AC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grazer AK the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Grazer AK against 1.17 for Wolfsberger AC. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.4 for Wolfsberger AC.