Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Akhmat, 28% draw, 23% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov
Line-ups
- 1V. UlyanovG
- 95A. AdamovD
- 4T. IbishevD
- 5K. CakeD
- 8M. BogosavacD
- 18J. RomaoM
- 11I. SilvaM
- 20M. SamorodovM
- 17E. CacinturaM
- 7L. SadulaevM
- 77G. MelkadzeF
- 88G. SheliaG
- 71R. MitsaevG
- 90O. NdongD
- 81M. SidorovD
- 10K. ShchetininM
- 6K. SidibeM
- 70A. GadzhievM
- 13M. KonateF
- 23G. KenzhebekM
- 30S. PesjakovG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 5D. OrozD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 11A. RahmanovicM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 4Y. GorshkovM
- 10M. KramaricM
- 19I. OleynikovF
- 80N. KokarevG
- 39E. FrolovG
- 72D. FernandezD
- 18I. LepskiiD
- 3T. GaldamesD
- 17I. ChesnokovM
- 20K. StolbovM
- 77D. MakarovM
- 78D. Malikov PavlovichM
Form going into Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat
- W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
Krylia Sovetov
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov
- 11 April 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–2 AkhmatPremier League
- 16 August 2025Akhmat 3–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 24 November 2024Krylia Sovetov 2–1 AkhmatPremier League
- 23 September 2024Akhmat 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 10 May 2024Krylya Sovetov 0–2 Akhmat GroznyPremier League
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat
- Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assist
- G. Melkadze3 goals
- L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists
Krylia Sovetov
- A. Rahmanović3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.