Akhmat
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 65% Akhmat, 22% draw, 13% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Akhmat 1.96, Krylia Sovetov 0.77.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Akhmat
- D0-0away to Fakel10 August 2026
- L1-2Spartak Moscow2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv26 July 2026
Krylia Sovetov
- L0-2Baltika8 August 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Akhmat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Akhmat carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.07 for Krylia Sovetov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Akhmat D-L-D; Krylia Sovetov D-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Akhmat and 0.77 for Krylia Sovetov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Akhmat rate 0.51 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Krylia Sovetov rate 0.42 and 2.03.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akhmat the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Akhmat against 0.77 for Krylia Sovetov. Akhmat's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.03 for Krylia Sovetov.