Ujpest vs Vasas NB I prediction & result
Final score: Ujpest 3-1 Vasas.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Ujpest, 29% draw, 37% Vasas — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasas at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ujpest vs Vasas
Line-ups
- 1P. SzappanosG
- 94P. StronatiD
- 5A. FiolaD
- 17A. MatkoM
- 10A. MaierM
- 88M. LjujicM
- 11K. HorvathM
- 15M. MucsanyiF
- 14E. AmenyidoF
- 36F. Ujvary
- 3Heitor
- 32D. DomboG
- 23D. BanaiG
- 2G. BodnarD
- 30J. NunesD
- 45A. AdemiM
- 77N. FenyoM
- 8N. Szendrei
- 27A. KrajcsovicsF
- 38K. Sarkadi
- 22V. GeyD
- 57P. IyinborD
- 17D. CsokaD
- 87M. Engedi
- 10M. KovacsretiM
- 14A. Doktorics
- 9M. KosztaF
- 88J. UrblikF
- 24S. Mezei
- 15S. Hidi
- 77M. Toth
- 26J. Uram
- 36B. BarathD
- 4B. Pavkovics
- 68A. Girsik
- 34K. OtigbaD
- 94B. CsekeM
- 8B. Z. Bano-SzaboM
- 29B. PethoF
- 7A. RadoF
Form going into Ujpest vs Vasas
Ujpest
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
Vasas
- L0-1Puskas Academy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Budapest Honved14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Vasas
- 6 July 2024Vasas 4–3 UjpestFriendlies Clubs
- 5 July 2023Ujpest 2–3 VasasFriendlies Clubs
- 6 May 2023Ujpest 1–1 VasasNB I
- 12 February 2023Vasas 0–1 UjpestNB I
- 11 September 2022Ujpest 2–1 VasasNB I
- 8 October 2021Vasas 2–1 UjpestFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Vasas
Ujpest
- A. Matko5 goals3 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals2 assists
Vasas
- M. Kovácsréti2 goals1 assist
- M. Koszta2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.