Ujpest
vs
Vasas
NB I prediction
The model makes it 5% Ujpest, 10% draw, 85% Vasas — fair odds of 20.00, 10.00 and 1.18. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-3 (9%).
Expected goals: Ujpest 0.92, Vasas 3.60.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ujpest
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
Vasas
- W2-1away to Budapest Honved14 August 2026
- W5-0Zalaegerszegi TE8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Ferencvarosi TC2 August 2026
- D2-2Gyori ETO FC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ujpest | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
| 1 | Vasas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Vasas
- 6 July 2024Vasas 4–3 UjpestFriendlies Clubs
- 5 July 2023Ujpest 2–3 VasasFriendlies Clubs
- 6 May 2023Ujpest 1–1 VasasNB I
- 12 February 2023Vasas 0–1 UjpestNB I
- 11 September 2022Ujpest 2–1 VasasNB I
- 8 October 2021Vasas 2–1 UjpestFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
Ujpest
- E. Amenyido2 goals3 assists
- K. Horváth2 goals1 assists
- A. Matko2 goals
Vasas
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.95 for Vasas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ujpest L-W-W; Vasas D-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Ujpest and 3.60 for Vasas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.57 in attack and 2.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasas rate 1.04 and 0.85.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-3 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 0-4 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 85%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ujpest against 3.6 for Vasas. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.85 for Vasas.