Everton
vs
Newcastle
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Everton 2–1 Newcastle
The model makes it 49% Everton, 26% draw, 25% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Everton 1.83, Newcastle 1.14.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Everton are 5th on 10 points from 6 games; Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Hull City.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Coventry.
- Last 6 meetings: Everton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 August 2026, ended Newcastle 1–3 Everton.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Everton53%
- Level after ninety minutes24%
- Newcastle23%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Everton vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Everton vs Newcastle
Everton
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
Newcastle
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
What these results say
- Everton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Everton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Newcastle
- 12 August 2026Newcastle 1–3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
- 28 February 2026Newcastle 2–3 EvertonPremier League
- 29 November 2025Everton 1–4 NewcastlePremier League
- 25 May 2025Newcastle 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 5 October 2024Everton 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 2 April 2024Newcastle 1–1 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Everton and Newcastle
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry30
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Everton carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.82 for Newcastle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Everton and 1.14 for Newcastle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton rate 0.96 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle rate 1.09 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Everton against 1.14 for Newcastle. Everton's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.17 for Newcastle.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Everton at home · Newcastle away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Everton 6, Newcastle 6.
Everton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Newcastle have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Everton
- at Newcastle2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Coventry6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Brentford23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Liverpool29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Newcastle
- vs Everton2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- at Brighton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.