Fajr Sepasi
vs
Tractor Sazi
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Tractor Sazi
The model makes it 23% Fajr Sepasi, 26% draw, 51% Tractor Sazi — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fajr Sepasi 0.97, Tractor Sazi 1.71.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Tractor Sazi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Fajr Sepasi are 8th on 10 points from 8 games; Tractor Sazi are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Fajr Sepasi have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aluminium Arak.
- Tractor Sazi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Esteghlal FC.
- Last 5 meetings: Tractor Sazi 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Tractor Sazi.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fajr Sepasi vs Tractor Sazi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 51% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Tractor Sazi
Fajr Sepasi
- W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Foolad FC7 September 2026
- D1-1Mes Shahr-e Babak3 September 2026
- D0-0ZOB Ahan29 August 2026
Tractor Sazi
- D1-1Esteghlal FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan10 September 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Chadormalu SC28 August 2026
What these results say
- Fajr Sepasi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Tractor Sazi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Tractor Sazi
- 6 February 2026Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
- 25 September 2025Tractor Sazi 0–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
- 25 May 2022Tractor Sazi 2–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 January 2022Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 October 2017Tractor Sazi 5–2 Fajr SepasiHazfi Cup
The two sides
Fajr Sepasi carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.71 for Tractor Sazi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Fajr Sepasi and 1.71 for Tractor Sazi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fajr Sepasi rate 0.60 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tractor Sazi rate 0.72 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fajr Sepasi a 0% chance of the title and Tractor Sazi 32.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tractor Sazi the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Fajr Sepasi against 1.71 for Tractor Sazi. Fajr Sepasi's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.99 for Tractor Sazi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fajr Sepasi at home · Tractor Sazi away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Fajr Sepasi 8, Tractor Sazi 8.
Tractor Sazi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Fajr Sepasi have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Fajr Sepasi
- at Persepolis FC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 13%
Tractor Sazi
- vs Neftchi Fergana2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 69%
- vs Kheybar Khorramabad7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.