Round of 32 · 21 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Maritimo vs Chaves Taça de Portugal prediction

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Our model says: Maritimo 2–1 Chaves

The model makes it 60% Maritimo, 21% draw, 19% Chaves — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Maritimo 2.46, Chaves 1.19.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Maritimo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Maritimo's rating is built from 10 Primeira Liga matches and Chaves's from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Maritimo are 15th in Primeira Liga on 8 points from 10 games; Chaves are 17th in Segunda Liga on 8 points from 10 games.
  • Maritimo have not won in their last 5 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Santa Clara.
  • Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Penafiel.
  • Last 6 meetings: Chaves 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2026, ended Maritimo 1–3 Chaves.

Chance to go through

Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Maritimo65%
  • Level after ninety minutes19%
  • Chaves16%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More Taça de Portugal predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Maritimo vs Chaves

64%
Both teams to score
71%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Maritimo win Draw Chaves win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 3–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Maritimo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Maritimo at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Maritimo vs Chaves

Maritimo

Primeira Liga

  • L0-2Santa Clara1 November 2026
  • L0-5away to Vitória SC23 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026

Chaves

Segunda Liga

  • L2-3Penafiel7 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Benfica B31 October 2026
  • W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026

What these results say

  • Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chaves conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Maritimo and Chaves in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
15MaritimoPrimeira Liga10226921-128
17ChavesSegunda Liga102261121-108

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Primeira Liga · Segunda Liga

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Chaves

  • 15 May 2026Maritimo 1–3 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 11 January 2026Chaves 2–3 MaritimoSegunda Liga
  • 2 February 2025Chaves 1–1 MaritimoSegunda Liga
  • 25 August 2024Maritimo 1–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 5 February 2023Chaves 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 15 August 2022Maritimo 1–2 ChavesPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Maritimo and Chaves

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Maritimo Chaves
0.75 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.02
2.46 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Maritimo the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Maritimo against 1.19 for Chaves. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.02 for Chaves.

How the model reaches 60% for Maritimo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Maritimo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Maritimo's ratings add 6 points and Chaves's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 60%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. Maritimo's ratings53%+6
  5. Chaves's ratings60%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

MaritimoChaves
10Matches10
2W 2D 6LRecord2W 2D 6L
9 0.9 per gameGoals scored11 1.1 per game
21 2.1 per gameGoals conceded21 2.1 per game
1 of 10Clean sheets1 of 10
3 of 10Failed to score2 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored–
20 2.0 per gameYellow cards26 2.6 per game
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Maritimo at home · Chaves away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord0W 1D 4L
4–9Goals for – against3–11
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, this season — Maritimo in the Primeira Liga, Chaves in the Segunda Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Maritimo 10 in the Primeira Liga, Chaves 10 in the Segunda Liga.

Maritimo scored 030124
Chaves conceded 323426

Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chaves have let in 6 there.

Chaves scored 013025
Maritimo conceded 335315

Chaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Maritimo have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Maritimo

  • vs Nacional27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 34%
  • at Sporting CP6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 6%
  • vs Rio Ave13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
  • at Estrela20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
  • vs SC Braga27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 19%

Chaves

  • vs Tondela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 36%
  • at União de Leiria7 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 20%
  • vs FC Porto B14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 40%
  • at Amarante20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
  • vs Torreense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.