Erzurumspor FK
vs
Çorum FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Çorum FK
The model makes it 28% Erzurumspor FK, 27% draw, 45% Çorum FK — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.19, Çorum FK 1.65.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Çorum FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Erzurumspor FK are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; Çorum FK are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Erzurumspor FK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eyüpspor.
- Çorum FK have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Rizespor.
- Last 6 meetings: Erzurumspor FK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Çorum FK 1–1 Erzurumspor FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
Çorum FK
- W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
- L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Erzurumspor FK kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Erzurumspor FK had two goals or fewer.
- Çorum FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
- Çorum FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Erzurumspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
Çorum FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK
- 2 May 2026Çorum FK 1–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 28 December 2025Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Çorum FK1. Lig
- 9 April 2025Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Çorum FK1. Lig
- 30 November 2024Çorum FK 0–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 28 April 2024Erzurumspor FK 2–1 Çorum FK1. Lig
- 10 December 2023Çorum FK 4–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ramírez41
- C. Ünder41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Erzurumspor FK carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.77 for Çorum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.65 for Çorum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Erzurumspor FK rate 0.54 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Çorum FK rate 1.10 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Erzurumspor FK a 0% chance of the title and Çorum FK 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK against 1.65 for Çorum FK. Erzurumspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.33 for Çorum FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Erzurumspor FK at home · Çorum FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Erzurumspor FKÇorum FK
Erzurumspor FK are 9th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Çorum FK are 6th after 8 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Erzurumspor FK 8, Çorum FK 8.
Çorum FK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Erzurumspor FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Erzurumspor FK
- at Rizespor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
- vs Göztepe22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 33%
- at Fenerbahçe29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 9%
- vs Kocaelispor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
Çorum FK
- vs Fenerbahçe8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
- at Başakşehir23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Kocaelispor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
- at Trabzonspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.