Arouca
vs
Maritimo
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 16% Arouca, 19% draw, 65% Maritimo — fair odds of 6.25, 5.26 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Arouca 1.08, Maritimo 2.32.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arouca
- W1-0away to Vitória SC8 August 2026
Maritimo
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Maritimo
- 8 April 2023Arouca 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 23 October 2022Maritimo 1–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 14 February 2022Arouca 0–3 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2021Maritimo 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 19 March 2017Maritimo 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 30 October 2016Arouca 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Arouca
- Barbero1 goals
Maritimo
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Arouca carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7.23 for Maritimo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arouca W; Maritimo W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Arouca and 2.32 for Maritimo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arouca rate 0.76 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maritimo rate 1.59 and 0.75.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maritimo the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Arouca against 2.32 for Maritimo. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/0.75 for Maritimo.