Dynamo Dresden
vs
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Hertha BSC
The model makes it 41% Dynamo Dresden, 28% draw, 31% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.63, Hertha BSC 1.28.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dynamo Dresden wins, grey are draws, red are Hertha BSC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo Dresden at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
- W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Nürnberg9 August 2026
Hertha BSC
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC
- 4 April 2026Dynamo Dresden 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 1 November 2025Hertha BSC 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 30 October 2019Hertha Berlin 5–5 Dynamo DresdenDFB Pokal
- 2 March 2013Dynamo Dresden 1–0 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
- 26 September 2012Hertha Berlin 1–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden
- J. Sterner2 goals1 assists
Hertha BSC
- J. Brekalo4 goals2 assists
- O. Adewumi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.51 for Hertha BSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.28 for Hertha BSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.69 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hertha BSC rate 0.73 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hertha BSC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.28 for Hertha BSC. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.45 for Hertha BSC.