Almeria vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 2-1 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Almeria, 30% draw, 30% Burgos — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 40%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Burgos
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 12Léo BaptistãoM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 9ThalysF
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 23Adri EmbarbaF
- 26K. KoneM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 18Saúl del CerroD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 20José GrageraM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 17Mario CanteroM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 35D. GonzalezG
- 24S. LencinasM
- 2ÁlexD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
Form going into Almeria vs Burgos
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
What these results say
- Almeria won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almeria had two goals or fewer.
- Burgos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almeria | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 26 |
| 8 | Burgos | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Burgos
- 9 May 2026Burgos 0–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 14 December 2025Almeria 1–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 21 March 2025Burgos 3–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 5 October 2024Almeria 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 30 April 2022Burgos 0–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Burgos
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
Burgos
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria beat Burgos 2–1. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jon Karrikaburu 40' for Burgos, Brian Cipenga 77' for Almeria, Miguel De La Fuente 84' for Almeria.
How the call on Almeria v Burgos has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Almeria's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Almeria win40%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Burgos win30%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.