Oțelul
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 48% Oțelul, 20% draw, 32% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 2.08, 5.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Oțelul 2.41, Universitatea Craiova 1.99.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Oțelul
- L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti9 August 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Universitatea Craiova
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Oțelul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Oțelul
- Patrick3 goals
Universitatea Craiova
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.63 for Universitatea Craiova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Oțelul W-D-D-L; Universitatea Craiova W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Oțelul and 1.99 for Universitatea Craiova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 1.08 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Craiova rate 0.75 and 1.18.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universitatea Craiova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Oțelul against 1.99 for Universitatea Craiova. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.18 for Universitatea Craiova.