Dundee United
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 42% Dundee United, 26% draw, 32% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee United 1.56, Falkirk 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dundee United
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Falkirk
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dundee United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Falkirk
- 6 March 2026Falkirk 2–1 Dundee UnitedFA Cup
- 14 February 2026Falkirk 2–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 22 November 2025Dundee United 0–3 FalkirkPremiership
- 3 August 2025Falkirk 2–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 13 July 2024Falkirk 2–0 Dundee UnitedLeague Cup
- 17 November 2023Falkirk 4–2 Dundee UnitedChallenge Cup
Leading scorers
Dundee United
- L. Rose1 goals
Falkirk
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dundee United carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.23 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dundee United D-L; Falkirk L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Dundee United and 1.35 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee United rate 0.47 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.51 and 1.76.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Falkirk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dundee United against 1.35 for Falkirk. Dundee United's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.76 for Falkirk.