Rangers
vs
Motherwell
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 53% Rangers, 21% draw, 26% Motherwell — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Rangers 2.17, Motherwell 1.48.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rangers
- L1-2Hibernian9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United31 July 2026
Motherwell
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Motherwell
- 26 April 2026Rangers 2–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 11 February 2026Motherwell 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 27 December 2025Rangers 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 2 August 2025Motherwell 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 1 March 2025Rangers 1–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 December 2024Motherwell 2–2 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers
Rangers
- T. Aasgaard1 goals
Motherwell
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rangers carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.26 for Motherwell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Rangers D-L; Motherwell W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Rangers and 1.48 for Motherwell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rangers rate 0.66 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motherwell rate 0.53 and 1.74.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Motherwell, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Rangers against 1.48 for Motherwell. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.74 for Motherwell.