Independiente
vs
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Independiente 1–0 Instituto Cordoba
The model makes it 42% Independiente, 29% draw, 29% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Independiente 1.64, Instituto Cordoba 1.15.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Independiente wins, grey are draws, red are Instituto Cordoba wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 42% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
Instituto Cordoba
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
- 17 March 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 August 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 February 2025Independiente 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 3–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 September 2023Independiente 0–0 Instituto CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Independiente and Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Instituto Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.69 for Instituto Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Independiente and 1.15 for Instituto Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.82 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Instituto Cordoba rate 0.89 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Instituto Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente a 3.1% chance of the title and Instituto Cordoba 33.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Independiente against 1.15 for Instituto Cordoba. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.23 for Instituto Cordoba.