Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-4 Instituto Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Independiente, 32% draw, 30% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente at 38%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Line-ups
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 2F. CalderónD
- 39R. MartinoD
- 16M. PerezM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 8M. MezaM
- 7S. MontielF
- 9I. MoralesF
- 19M. AbaldoF
- 32D. MartínezM
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 30Tomás ParmoM
- 36S. ValdezD
- 10L. CabralM
- 1J. BlázquezG
- 5N. BanegasD
- 6E. ÁvilaF
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 30J. GalvánD
- 44G. CeratoM
- 55G. AbregúM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 21J. LázaroF
- 17M. TisseraF
- 10A. LunaF
- 2H. De La FuenteD
- 11M. FonsecaF
- 32A. BravoD
- 23J. MeliD
- 13I. MéndezM
- 73Lucas OliveraD
- 35E. SittaroG
- 9F. SuárezF
- 14W. VieraM
Form going into Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
Instituto Cordoba
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
What these results say
- Instituto Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
- 17 March 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 August 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 February 2025Independiente 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 3–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Independiente and Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Instituto Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Instituto Cordoba won 4–1 at Independiente. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente at 38% and given a win for Instituto Cordoba 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro 16' for Instituto Cordoba, Maximiliano Meza 22' for Independiente, Hernán De La Fuente 51' for Instituto Cordoba, Matías Gallardo 65' for Instituto Cordoba, Alex Luna 80' for Instituto Cordoba. Sent off: Maximiliano Meza (Independiente) 44'.
How the call on Independiente v Instituto Cordoba has moved
First published on 18 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 32% / 30%: the biggest move is Independiente's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Independiente win38%▼ −4
- Draw32%▲ +3
- Instituto Cordoba win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.