Dijon
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 57% Dijon, 27% draw, 16% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Dijon 1.49, Saint Etienne 0.65.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dijon
- L0-1PAU14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Montpellier8 August 2026
Saint Etienne
- W3-1Clermont Foot14 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sochaux8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Dijon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dijon
No league goals recorded yet.
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona3 goals
- J. Breum2 goals1 assists
- T. Ballo1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dijon carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.42 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dijon D-L; Saint Etienne W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Dijon and 0.65 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dijon rate 0.57 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.58 and 1.38.
That points to 36% for over two and a half goals and 38% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 2-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Saint Etienne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dijon against 0.65 for Saint Etienne. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.38 for Saint Etienne.