FK Partizan
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 46% FK Partizan, 19% draw, 35% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.17, 5.26 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
Expected goals: FK Partizan 2.65, OFK Beograd 2.32.
Both teams to score: 84%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%, under 2.5: 13%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Partizan
- L1-3away to Mladost Lucani23 August 2026
- L0-1Radnicki 192316 August 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026
OFK Beograd
- W1-0Zemun22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Cukaricki15 August 2026
- D2-2Železničar Pančevo9 August 2026
- W4-1away to Novi Pazar1 August 2026
- D0-0Radnik Surdulica25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FK Partizan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | OFK Beograd | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FK Partizan vs OFK Beograd
- 9 May 2026FK Partizan 1–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 28 February 2026FK Partizan 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 27 September 2025OFK Beograd 0–2 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 23 April 2025FK Partizan 2–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 15 February 2025FK Partizan 4–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 15 September 2024OFK Beograd 3–2 FK PartizanSuper Liga
Leading scorers
FK Partizan
No league goals recorded yet.
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Partizan carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.24 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Partizan D-W-L-L-L; OFK Beograd D-W-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.65 goals for FK Partizan and 2.32 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Partizan rate 0.81 in attack and 3.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.51 and 1.73.
That points to 87% for over two and a half goals and 84% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFK Beograd, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Partizan a 0% chance of the title and OFK Beograd 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Partizan the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for FK Partizan against 2.32 for OFK Beograd. FK Partizan's attack/defence rating is 0.81/3.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.73 for OFK Beograd.