Dinamo Zagreb
vs
NEC Nijmegen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NEC Nijmegen
The model makes it 48% Dinamo Zagreb, 25% draw, 27% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.93, NEC Nijmegen 1.34.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Zagreb are 19th on 1 point from 1 game; NEC Nijmegen are bottom on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to HNK Hajduk Split.
- NEC Nijmegen have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ajax.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Dinamo Zagreb
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.74 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.34 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.04 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 0.90 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 1.34 for NEC Nijmegen. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.12 for NEC Nijmegen.
Season stats
Dinamo Zagreb at home · NEC Nijmegen away
League matches only, this season — Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL, NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dinamo Zagreb 8 in the HNL, NEC Nijmegen 8 in the Eredivisie.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Zagreb
- vs HNK Rijeka24 Oct · HNLwin 60%
- at Rudes31 Oct · HNLwin 65%
- at Sunderland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
NEC Nijmegen
- vs Groningen25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at Heerenveen31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs Omonia Nicosia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.