Jagiellonia
vs
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 1–2 Anderlecht
The model makes it 35% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 37% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.38, Anderlecht 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Jagiellonia and Anderlecht are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Jagiellonia are 21st on 0 points from 1 game; Anderlecht are 23rd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Anderlecht are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Cercle Brugge.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Anderlecht at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
Jagiellonia
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
Anderlecht
- L1-2Lyon16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Anderlecht
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- K. Szmyt10
Anderlecht
GoalsAssists
- M. CvetkoviÄ10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.82 for Anderlecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.43 for Anderlecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.84 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anderlecht rate 0.93 and 0.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jagiellonia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.43 for Anderlecht. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.99 for Anderlecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jagiellonia at home · Anderlecht away
League matches only, this season — Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa, Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Jagiellonia 9 in the Ekstraklasa, Anderlecht 8 in the Jupiler Pro League.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Anderlecht have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jagiellonia
- vs Wisla Plock25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Lechia Gdansk28 Oct · Cupwin 36%
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Levski Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Anderlecht
- at Gent25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs KVC Westerlo31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 46%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- at Club Brugge KV8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.