Celtic
vs
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celtic 1–0 Celta Vigo
The model makes it 39% Celtic, 30% draw, 31% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Celtic 1.29, Celta Vigo 1.11.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celtic are 28th on 0 points from 1 game; Celta Vigo are 25th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Motherwell.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Elche.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Celtic
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
Celta Vigo
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.89 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Celtic and 1.11 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.96 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 0.85 and 0.81.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celta Vigo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Celtic against 1.11 for Celta Vigo. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.81 for Celta Vigo.
Season stats
Celtic at home · Celta Vigo away
League matches only, this season — Celtic in the Premiership, Celta Vigo in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Celtic 8 in the Premiership, Celta Vigo 8 in the La Liga.
Celtic score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 1 there.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Celtic have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- at Hibernian25 Oct · Premiershipwin 51%
- vs Dundee United28 Oct · Premiershipwin 70%
- at Falkirk31 Oct · Premiershipwin 57%
Celta Vigo
- vs Real Betis25 Oct · La Ligawin 33%
- at Rayo Vallecano31 Oct · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Union St. Gilloise5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.