Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Torreense
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Torreense
The model makes it 48% Ferencvarosi TC, 28% draw, 24% Torreense — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.54, Torreense 0.93.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ferencvarosi TC are 6th on 3 points from 1 game; Torreense are 12th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Debreceni VSC.
- Torreense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Tondela.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense
Ferencvarosi TC
- W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026
Torreense
- W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Torreense
Ferencvarosi TC
GoalsAssists
- B. Yusuf12
- K. Zachariassen11
- D. Arzani10
Torreense
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.59 for Torreense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 0.93 for Torreense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.75 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torreense rate 0.73 and 1.24.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.93 for Torreense. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.24 for Torreense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TC at home · Torreense away
League matches only, this season — Ferencvarosi TC in the NB I, Torreense in the Segunda Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Ferencvarosi TC 8 in the NB I, Torreense 7 in the Segunda Liga.
Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Torreense have let in 1 there.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ferencvarosi TC
- vs MTK Budapest24 Oct · NB Iwin 60%
- vs Paks31 Oct · NB Iwin 52%
- at AC Milan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 13%
Torreense
- vs Amarante26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 61%
- at Portimonense31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- vs Ararat-Armenia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 66%
- vs União de Leiria9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.