Celje
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celje 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 36% Celje, 28% draw, 36% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Celje 1.32, Red Bull Salzburg 1.31.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Celje and Red Bull Salzburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celje are 31st on 0 points from 1 game; Red Bull Salzburg are 14th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Celje have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Aluminij.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Grazer AK.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celje at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Celje
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Celje and Red Bull Salzburg
Celje
No league goals yet this season.
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celje carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.77 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Celje and 1.31 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celje rate 0.77 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.87 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Red Bull Salzburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Celje against 1.31 for Red Bull Salzburg. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.03 for Red Bull Salzburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celje at home · Red Bull Salzburg away
League matches only, this season — Celje in the 1. SNL, Red Bull Salzburg in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Celje 10 in the 1. SNL, Red Bull Salzburg 8 in the Bundesliga.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 1 there.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Celje have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celje
- at Olimpija Ljubljana28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 35%
- vs Nafta1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 56%
Red Bull Salzburg
- at Lask Linz25 Oct · Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Austria Lustenau1 Nov · Bundesligawin 72%
- at Anderlecht5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.