Corvinul Hunedoara
vs
Arges Pitesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Corvinul Hunedoara 1–0 Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 44% Corvinul Hunedoara, 33% draw, 23% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.27, 3.03 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Corvinul Hunedoara 1.12, Arges Pitesti 0.65.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Corvinul Hunedoara are 7th on 16 points from 11 games; Arges Pitesti are 14th on 11 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Corvinul Hunedoara have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to FC Voluntari.
- Arges Pitesti have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Last 3 meetings: Corvinul Hunedoara 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 September 2024, ended Arges Pitesti 0–1 Corvinul Hunedoara.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corvinul Hunedoara at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti
Corvinul Hunedoara
- W3-2FC Voluntari9 October 2026
- W3-2away to Oțelul21 September 2026
- L0-1Universitatea Craiova13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Petrolul Ploiesti6 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti29 August 2026
Arges Pitesti
- L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
What these results say
- Corvinul Hunedoara conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Corvinul Hunedoara
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Arges Pitesti
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti
- 28 September 2024Arges Pitesti 0–1 Corvinul HunedoaraLiga II
- 29 August 2024Arges Pitesti 2–0 Corvinul HunedoaraCupa României
- 9 March 2024Corvinul Hunedoara 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga II
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Corvinul Hunedoara carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.36 for Arges Pitesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Corvinul Hunedoara and 0.65 for Arges Pitesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.61 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arges Pitesti rate 0.41 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Corvinul Hunedoara a 0.1% chance of the title and Arges Pitesti 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corvinul Hunedoara the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Corvinul Hunedoara against 0.65 for Arges Pitesti. Corvinul Hunedoara's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.23 for Arges Pitesti.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Corvinul Hunedoara at home · Arges Pitesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Corvinul Hunedoara 11, Arges Pitesti 11.
Corvinul Hunedoara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 0 there.
Arges Pitesti score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Corvinul Hunedoara have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Corvinul Hunedoara
- at FCSB7 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
- at Csikszereda21 Nov · Liga Iwin 42%
- vs Farul Constanta28 Nov · Liga Iwin 45%
Arges Pitesti
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
- vs FCSB21 Nov · Liga Iwin 35%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.