Deportes Tolima
vs
Chico
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Chico
The model makes it 56% Deportes Tolima, 27% draw, 17% Chico — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Deportes Tolima 1.88, Chico 0.57.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportes Tolima vs Chico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 56% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Chico
Deportes Tolima
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Fe12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros7 September 2026
- W2-1Cucuta1 September 2026
Chico
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin12 September 2026
- W2-0Once Caldas5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 17 | Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Chico
- 23 March 2026Chico 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 September 2025Deportes Tolima 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 2 April 2025Chico 1–4 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 September 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 1 March 2024Chico 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 30 September 2023Deportes Tolima 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Chico
Deportes Tolima
- L. Sandoval8 goals3 assists
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportes Tolima carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.17 for Chico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.57 for Chico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes Tolima rate 0.69 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chico rate 0.48 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportes Tolima a 1.1% chance of the title and Chico 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Deportes Tolima against 0.57 for Chico. Deportes Tolima's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.88 for Chico.