Vitesse
vs
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Vitesse 1–0 NAC Breda
The model makes it 36% Vitesse, 31% draw, 33% NAC Breda — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitesse 1.25, NAC Breda 1.14.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Vitesse and NAC Breda are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vitesse are 8th on 13 points from 8 games; NAC Breda are 9th on 13 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Vitesse have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Heracles.
- NAC Breda have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitesse 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2019, ended Vitesse 4–1 NAC Breda.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitesse at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Vitesse
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2119 September 2026
- L0-1away to Roda12 September 2026
- W2-1FC OSS4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Den Bosch28 August 2026
NAC Breda
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
- L2-3Jong Utrecht11 September 2026
- L2-4away to Waalwijk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Roda28 August 2026
What these results say
- Vitesse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitesse vs NAC Breda
- 2 March 2019Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 9 December 2018NAC Breda 2–1 VitesseEredivisie
- 7 April 2018NAC Breda 1–0 VitesseEredivisie
- 12 August 2017Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 7 February 2015NAC Breda 0–1 VitesseEredivisie
- 25 October 2014Vitesse 2–2 NAC BredaEredivisie
Leading scorers: Vitesse and NAC Breda
Vitesse
- N. Bannis7 goals3 assists
NAC Breda
- P. Gladon4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vitesse carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.51 for NAC Breda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Vitesse and 1.14 for NAC Breda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitesse rate 0.59 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NAC Breda rate 0.66 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vitesse a 5.6% chance of the title and NAC Breda 12.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vitesse against 1.14 for NAC Breda. Vitesse's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.3 for NAC Breda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vitesse at home · NAC Breda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Vitesse 8, NAC Breda 8.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); NAC Breda have let in 2 there.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Vitesse have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vitesse
- at FC Volendam9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at FC Eindhoven16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs Emmen23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- at Jong Ajax2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs De Graafschap8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
NAC Breda
- vs MVV9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at Helmond Sport16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs Heracles23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Jong PSV U212 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at Dordrecht6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.