Almere City FC
vs
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Almere City FC 1–0 FC Volendam
The model makes it 39% Almere City FC, 30% draw, 31% FC Volendam — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Almere City FC 1.41, FC Volendam 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Almere City FC are 2nd on 16 points from 8 games; FC Volendam are 11th on 12 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Dordrecht.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to VVV Venlo.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 July 2026, ended Almere City FC 2–1 FC Volendam.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almere City FC at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Almere City FC vs FC Volendam
Almere City FC
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
- L0-1Jong Ajax4 September 2026
- W4-1away to De Graafschap29 August 2026
FC Volendam
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
- L3-5away to Emmen4 September 2026
- W6-1Dordrecht28 August 2026
What these results say
- Almere City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Volendam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam
- 15 July 2026Almere City FC 2–1 FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Almere City FC 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 14 January 2024FC Volendam 0–1 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 17 December 2021Almere City FC 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 1 October 2021FC Volendam 3–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 3 March 2021Almere City FC 1–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Almere City FC and FC Volendam
Almere City FC
- F. Druijf6 goals3 assists
FC Volendam
- H. Veerman9 goals2 assists
- R. Niemeijer4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.52 for FC Volendam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Almere City FC and 1.11 for FC Volendam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Almere City FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Volendam rate 0.65 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 19.5% chance of the title and FC Volendam 10.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Almere City FC against 1.11 for FC Volendam. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.26 for FC Volendam.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Almere City FC at home · FC Volendam away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 8, FC Volendam 8.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Volendam have let in 4 there.
FC Volendam score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Almere City FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Almere City FC
- vs FC Eindhoven9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Emmen17 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs Roda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Waalwijk30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
FC Volendam
- vs Vitesse9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Waalwijk18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- vs De Graafschap30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.