Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Independiente
The model makes it 44% Defensa Y Justicia, 30% draw, 26% Independiente — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.38, Independiente 0.94.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Defensa Y Justicia's rating is built from 61 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Independiente's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,335 matches.
Key facts
- Defensa Y Justicia are 3rd on 24 points from 13 games; Independiente are 7th on 19 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Defensa Y Justicia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Instituto Cordoba.
- Independiente are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Racing Club.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Independiente 3–1 Defensa Y Justicia.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 44% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026
- W3-0San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
Independiente
- D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
- L1-4Instituto Cordoba2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
What these results say
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Defensa Y Justicia | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 24 |
| 7 | Independiente | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
- 18 April 2026Independiente 3–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 June 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 February 2023Independiente 0–2 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 July 2022Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 August 2021Independiente 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2021Independiente 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Defensa Y Justicia carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.62 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.94 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.89 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.79 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Defensa Y Justicia a 2.3% chance of the title and Independiente 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 0.94 for Independiente. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.26 for Independiente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Defensa Y Justicia at home · Independiente away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Defensa Y Justicia 28, Independiente 29.
Defensa Y Justicia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Independiente have let in 7 there.
Independiente score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Defensa Y Justicia have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Defensa Y Justicia
- at Boca Juniors8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 21%
Independiente
- vs Deportivo Riestra8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.