Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Platense
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Platense
The model makes it 48% Gimnasia Mendoza, 29% draw, 23% Platense — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 1.46, Platense 0.84.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Gimnasia Mendoza: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gimnasia Mendoza are 6th on 20 points from 12 games; Platense are 13th on 11 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Gimnasia Mendoza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Newell's Old Boys.
- Platense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Argentinos Juniors.
- Last 2 meetings: Platense 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Platense 1–1 Gimnasia Mendoza.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense
Gimnasia Mendoza
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata5 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
Platense
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Velez Sarsfield5 October 2026
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Platense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Platense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 13 | Platense | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gimnasia Mendoza
Chance to finish in the top four
Platense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense
- 12 April 2026Platense 1–1 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 February 2019Gimnasia Mendoza 0–3 PlatensePrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Platense
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica130
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia Mendoza carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.49 for Platense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 0.84 for Platense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.82 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Platense rate 0.70 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gimnasia Mendoza a 0.9% chance of the title and Platense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 0.84 for Platense. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.44 for Platense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gimnasia Mendoza at home · Platense away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Gimnasia Mendoza 27, Platense 27.
Gimnasia Mendoza score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Platense have let in 2 there.
Platense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Gimnasia Mendoza have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Gimnasia Mendoza
- at Lanus1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 22%
- vs Independiente Rivadavia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
Platense
- vs Central Cordoba de Santiago2 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at San Lorenzo8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.