Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia La Plata 2–1 Sarmiento Junin
The model makes it 46% Gimnasia La Plata, 26% draw, 28% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.68, Sarmiento Junin 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Gimnasia La Plata are 6th on 19 points from 12 games; Sarmiento Junin are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Atletico Tucuman.
- Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Aldosivi.
- Last 6 meetings: Gimnasia La Plata 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Gimnasia La Plata.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia La Plata
- D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
Sarmiento Junin
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gimnasia La Plata | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gimnasia La Plata
Chance to finish in the top four
Sarmiento Junin
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia La Plata and Sarmiento Junin have met 6 times in the records we hold, Gimnasia La Plata has won 2 of them to Sarmiento Junin's 0, with 4 drawn.
The record
Gimnasia La Plata won the last one 2–1 on 13 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia La Plata | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 6 goals, an average of 1.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSarmiento Junin 1–2 Gimnasia La Plata - 4 Oct 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSarmiento Junin 0–1 Gimnasia La Plata - 30 Mar 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaGimnasia La Plata 0–0 Sarmiento Junin - 18 Oct 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSarmiento Junin 1–1 Gimnasia La Plata - 27 May 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaGimnasia La Plata 0–0 Sarmiento Junin - 28 Aug 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSarmiento Junin 0–0 Gimnasia La Plata
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia La Plata | 0.89 | 1.37 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 0.94 | 1.53 |
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel144
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia La Plata carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.62 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 1.19 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.89 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.94 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 1.19 for Sarmiento Junin. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.53 for Sarmiento Junin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gimnasia La Plata at home · Sarmiento Junin away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Gimnasia La Plata 30, Sarmiento Junin 27.
Sarmiento Junin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gimnasia La Plata have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Gimnasia La Plata
- at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto30 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 44%
- vs Belgrano Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 33%
Sarmiento Junin
- vs Rosario Central31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 32%
- at Tigre8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.