Deportivo Riestra
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Riestra 1–0 Union Santa Fe
The model makes it 37% Deportivo Riestra, 32% draw, 31% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 1.17, Union Santa Fe 0.99.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Deportivo Riestra are 12th on 10 points from 10 games; Union Santa Fe are 9th on 13 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Deportivo Riestra have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Union Santa Fe are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Boca Juniors.
- Last 2 meetings: Union Santa Fe 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Union Santa Fe 2–0 Deportivo Riestra.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Riestra at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
Union Santa Fe
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
- Union Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
- 3 April 2026Union Santa Fe 2–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 August 2024Union Santa Fe 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Riestra carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.64 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.99 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Riestra rate 0.59 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 1.00 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Union Santa Fe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Riestra the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra against 0.99 for Union Santa Fe. Deportivo Riestra's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.61 for Union Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Riestra at home · Union Santa Fe away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Deportivo Riestra 26, Union Santa Fe 29.
Union Santa Fe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Riestra have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Riestra
- at Instituto Cordoba25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 23%
- vs Talleres Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
- at Independiente8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
Union Santa Fe
- vs Estudiantes La Plata25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
- at Newell's Old Boys1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 31%
- vs Velez Sarsfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.